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European Football

Calling all conspiracy theorists

The Champions League draw was apparently leaked a couple of hours before the draw was officially made, according to a report in the Mirror. Oh wait, the Mirror? Damn, that sounded juicy for a minute didn’t it?

Anyway, if you haven’t seen the draw, here you go:

Arsenal vs. Liverpool; AS Roma vs. Manchester United; Schalke vs. Barcelona; Fenerbahce vs. Chelsea.

The semi-finals were sorted at the same time, and will be:

Arsenal or Liverpool vs. Fenerbahce or Chelsea; Schalke or Barcelona vs. AS Roma or Manchester United.

Should be good shouldn’t it?

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Discussion

One thought on “Calling all conspiracy theorists

  1. Well considering that the order of the games and who got to play at home first was did not coincide, only who met who, the probability of of correctly guessing who is playing against who in a non-restrictive quarter final draw is actually not that low.

    You almost have 1 % chance of correctly guessing it actually.

    Since neither the order of the matches nor the internal order of the teams mattered here is the calculation for the propability:

    1st game: Someone has to be the first team. Who it is is irrelevant since neither the order of the matches nor the internal order of the teams mattered. This team can then be drawn against 7 teams…

    So far 1/7 chance

    2nd Game: Someone has to be the first team of the remaining 6. Who it is is irrelevant since neither the order of the matches nor the internal order of the teams mattered. This team can then be drawn against 5 teams…

    So far 1/35 chance (7*5)

    3rd Game:: Someone has to be the first team of the remaining 4. Who it is is irrelevant since neither the order of the matches nor the internal order of the teams mattered. This team can then be drawn against 3 teams…

    So far 1/105 chance (7*5*3)

    4th Game: Since there are only 2 teams remaining, they will play each other for sure.

    Probability of guessing it all right at chance:

    0,0095 (0,95%) or 1 /105

    Not exactly like winning the lottery… =)

    Posted by Noll Ning | December 23, 2011, 3:14 pm

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